On 23 July 2026, the Minister for Finance presented Ghana’s 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review (the “Review”) to Parliament. The Government is not seeking a supplementary allocation and has retained the principal macroeconomic targets announced in the 2026 Budget. Its central decision is instead to realign expenditure within the existing envelope while advancing significant reforms in tax administration, customs, excise duties, procurement, public financial management and the energy sector.
For businesses, the Review combines stronger headline macroeconomic indicators with a clear shift towards technology-led revenue enforcement and tighter control of customs, VAT and public expenditure. Several announced measures remain subject to legislation, regulations, administrative guidance, procurement processes or transaction structuring.
At a glance
|
Indicator |
Position reported in the Review |
|
First-quarter real GDP growth |
6.4% |
|
First-quarter non-oil GDP growth |
6.3% |
|
Inflation as at June 2026 |
5.3% |
|
Gross international reserves at June 2026 |
US$12.9 billion; 5.0 months of import cover |
|
Commitment-basis primary balance at June 2026 |
Surplus of 0.9% of GDP |
|
Public debt as at June 2026 |
GH¢719.5 billion; 45.0% of GDP |
|
Full-year targets retained |
Overall GDP growth of at least 4.8%; non-oil growth of at least 4.9%; inflation of 8% ± 2 percentage points; commitment-basis primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP; and reserves of at least three months of import cover |
No supplementary budget, but expenditure is being realigned
The total appropriation and commitment-basis expenditure ceiling remain unchanged. Within that envelope, the Government has allocated GH¢5 billion to the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy, which seeks to build reserves to the equivalent of 15 months of import cover by 2028. Foreign-financed capital expenditure has been reduced by GH¢3 billion following slower bilateral-loan disbursements.
Other reallocations include GH¢400 million for high-occupancy buses, GH¢350 million for emergency flood response and GH¢226 million for additional flood-control and mitigation measures.
Contractors, financiers and project sponsors should therefore monitor whether particular capital projects or sector allocations are affected by reprioritisation.
The macroeconomic position
The Review reports first-quarter growth ahead of the full-year targets, inflation within the target band and stronger external buffers. It also reports a decline in the policy rate from 27% in January 2025 to 14% by July 2026, a reduction in the Ghana Reference Rate to approximately 10% by June 2026 and an average commercial lending rate of 15.6%.
The cedi’s strong appreciation in 2025 partially reversed during the first half of 2026: the Review records depreciation of approximately 7.9% against the United States dollar, 6.5% against pound sterling and 5.0% against the euro during that period.
Growth remains concentrated. Information and communication, mining and quarrying, trade, crops, and transport and storage accounted for 86.6% of first-quarter growth. Businesses should therefore assess sector conditions independently rather than treat aggregate growth as uniform across the economy.
The Review also states that Ghana’s economy exceeded US$100 billion in nominal terms in 2025 and that per-capita income increased from US$2,527 in 2024 to US$3,385. It reports that unemployment declined from 13.7% during the first three quarters of 2024 to 12.8% in the corresponding period of 2025, while multidimensional poverty declined from 24.9% in the third quarter of 2024 to 21.9% in the third quarter of 2025.
External-sector performance was heavily supported by gold. The current-account surplus increased to 8.3% of GDP and the trade surplus to US$13.8 billion in 2025. During the first half of 2026, the current-account surplus was US$5.1 billion and the trade surplus was US$8.8 billion; gold exports of US$12.5 billion represented 68% of total exports, while private transfers and remittances amounted to US$3.6 billion. The Minister reported an agreement with large-scale mining companies under which Government will purchase 30% of their annual gold production for refining by local refineries.
Ghana also met most of the ECOWAS macroeconomic-convergence criteria assessed for 2025, including the fiscal-deficit, reserve, public-debt, central-bank-financing and exchange-rate criteria. Average annual inflation remained the exception.
Debt, domestic financing and the IMF programme
Public debt stood at GH¢719.5 billion at the end of June 2026, comprising GH¢391.1 billion of domestic debt and GH¢328.4 billion of external debt. Although the debt-to-GDP ratio was reported at 45.0%, material domestic maturities remain: GH¢58 billion of Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bonds mature in 2027 and GH¢53 billion in 2028.
The Government has committed 7% of non-oil tax revenue, together with proceeds from domestic bond issuances, to the Sinking Fund. The Fund held GH¢15.6 billion on 22 July 2026, with a stated year-end target of GH¢30 billion. Amendments to the Public Financial Management Act and dedicated Sinking Fund Regulations are planned to strengthen governance, transparency and reporting.
The Minister also reported that a GH¢10.1 billion coupon payment under the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (“DDEP”) was made on 17 February 2026, with a further GH¢10.8 billion DDEP coupon payment falling due on 18 August 2026. In addition, Ghana has paid approximately US$2.1 billion in principal and interest to Eurobond holders since January 2025.
Ghana also returned to longer-term domestic issuance in April 2026 through a GH¢2.7 billion seven-year cedi-denominated bond. The Review records lower Treasury bill rates and a reduction of approximately 300 basis points in Ghana’s Eurobond yields during the year.
The Minister reported staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on the sixth and final review of Ghana’s US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility. Executive Board approval followed on 27 July 2026, enabling the final disbursement of approximately US$371 million. All quantitative performance criteria except the ceiling on changes in the Bank of Ghana’s claims on central government and public entities were met; the exception was attributed to the accounting treatment of the Government’s Bank of Ghana recapitalisation bond.
The Government intends to complete the restructuring of outstanding non-bonded commercial debt by December 2026. The Review records S&P’s affirmation of Ghana at B− with a stable outlook, Moody’s affirmation at Caa1 with a positive outlook and Fitch’s upgrade from B− to B with a positive outlook. Ghana’s external and overall risk of debt distress has moved from high to moderate.
Following completion of the Extended Credit Facility, the Government has requested a 36-month IMF Policy Coordination Instrument. The proposed instrument would not provide new IMF financing; but would monitor reforms through semi-annual reviews and 26 reform targets covering fiscal adjustment, debt sustainability, governance, monetary and exchange-rate policy, financial-sector stability and inclusive growth. The Government also proposes to reduce the commitment-basis primary-surplus target from 1.5% of GDP to 0.5% in 2027 to create space for growth-enhancing capital expenditure, subject to an amendment of the fiscal-responsibility framework.
Financial-sector measures include the reported recapitalisation of National Investment Bank, Agricultural Development Bank and Consolidated Bank Ghana in 2025, as well as UMB Bank and Prudential Bank through separate processes. For the Bank of Ghana, the Government issued a GH¢5 billion recapitalisation bond in March 2026 and expects to make annual provision until the Bank’s equity is restored.
Tax and revenue administration
The Minister addressed the abolition of the Electronic Transfer Levy, betting tax, Emissions Levy, and VAT on motor insurance, as well as the introduction of the sliding-scale royalty regime for gold
VAT reforms already in effect
Act 1151, effective from 1 January 2026, introduced material changes to the VAT regime. These include:
· abolition of the COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy;
· input-tax deductibility for the National Health Insurance and Ghana Education Trust Fund levies;
· a reduction in the aggregate effective charge from approximately 21.9% to 20%;
· abolition of the VAT Flat Rate Scheme;
· VAT relief for qualifying mineral reconnaissance and prospecting supplies;
· an increase in the registration threshold for businesses dealing in goods from GH¢200,000 to GH¢750,000; and
· extension of the zero-rating for locally manufactured textiles to the end of 2028.
Supporting regulations are expected in 2027. In the interim, the Ghana Revenue Authority is expected to issue administrative guidelines and practice notes. Businesses should review invoicing, input-credit treatment, registration status, contracts and systems against the new regime.
Digital VAT enforcement
A technology solution for collecting VAT from non-resident digital platforms was piloted in April 2026. Nationwide rollout is subject to regulatory approvals. The Government projects approximately GH¢2.3 billion in revenue during the first full year of deployment.
The Fiscal Electronic Device pilot is also at an advanced stage. The devices are intended to improve transaction monitoring and VAT accounting, while a proposed VAT Reward Scheme would incentivise customers to obtain valid invoices.
Customs reform
Reviews of the Customs Act and Excise Duty Act have been completed, and the resulting Bills were being laid before Parliament. The proposed customs measures include:
· maximum warehousing periods of three months for perishables, six months for general goods and 12 months for raw materials;
· a six-month limit on re-warehousing;
· electronic inventory systems linked to Customs for bonded warehouses;
· payment of duties and taxes on transit goods at the first port of entry, supported by customs-to-customs arrangements;
· restriction of new free-zone licences to genuine manufacturing enterprises;
· tighter controls over duty exemptions and goods entering the domestic market;
· mandatory use of the appropriate Tax Identification Number by importers;
· stronger Import Declaration Form and valuation controls;
· bank guarantees, approved pipelines and electronic tracking for movements of refined petroleum products; and
· removal of the exemption for bunkering services.
Importers, bonded-warehouse operators, free-zone enterprises, petroleum businesses and logistics providers should review the effect of these proposals on working capital, inventory cycles, guarantees, systems and supply-chain documentation.
Excise duty reform
The proposed Excise Duty Bill would introduce a hybrid value-and-quantity system for wines and spirits, review the sliding-scale rates for beer and stout, require electronic registration of stockists, establish a nationwide track-and-trace system, enforce bank-guarantee requirements and permit penalties of up to three times the excise duty for tampering. The Government also proposes abolishing the 20% excise duty on locally manufactured fruit juices.
AI-assisted customs valuation
The Publican AI Trade Solution was fully deployed in March 2026. From the pilot phase through 17 July, the system reportedly increased assessed customs collections by more than US$302 million, a 17.5% uplift over importer-declared amounts. Approximately 366,000 declarations were analysed, with 24% triggering more than one valuation-risk indicator.
The system examines potential undervaluation, tariff misclassification, product misdescription, quantity or weight discrepancies, country-of-origin claims and inconsistencies in supporting records. Vehicle valuation was not yet included but is planned for a subsequent phase. This materially increases the need for defensible valuation methodologies, correct classifications and complete contemporaneous import documentation.
Procurement and public financial management
The commitment-authorisation regime is operational, with quarterly ceilings and authorisation required before expenditure commitments are incurred. The Minister stated that no new arrears were accumulated during the first half of 2026.
Further procurement reforms are proposed to:
· reduce the lead time for National Competitive Tendering for goods from 23 weeks to eight weeks;
· reduce the lead time for International Competitive Tendering for works from 27 weeks to 14 weeks;
· confine single-source procurement to genuinely exceptional circumstances;
· prevent poor planning from being treated as an emergency; and
· introduce sanctions for approvals granted in breach of the Public Procurement Act.
Starting with the 2027 Budget, commitment authorisation is intended to be available only for projects that have undergone the required appraisal, comply with the Public Financial Management Act and have an appropriation.
These measures should improve discipline and project readiness, but they will also place greater emphasis on compliant procurement strategies, appraisal, approvals, funding certainty and documentary records.
The wider governance programme includes an independent audit of expenditure arrears, publication of a Fiscal Strategy Document and Fiscal Risk Statement, full operationalisation of the Fiscal Council and Value for Money Office, and stronger monitoring of state-owned enterprises. Proposed IMF programme milestones also include completion of key Integrated Tax Administration System functions, quarterly audits of ECG’s revenue and collection account and expansion of LEAP coverage.
Selected investment and transaction developments
Electricity distribution
Following Cabinet approval for private-sector participation in electricity distribution, a transaction adviser was appointed in June 2026 to conduct due diligence and develop a framework for participation in the Electricity Company of Ghana and Northern Electricity Distribution Company. The implementation strategy, including transaction structure, legal and regulatory reforms, investor prequalification and the request for proposals, is expected before year-end.
The broader state-owned-enterprise programme envisages a review and reclassification of the portfolio, publication of audited financial statements, stronger board-selection processes and decisions on restructuring, consolidation, commercialisation or divestment. In the energy sector, the Government also intends to continue the Cash Waterfall Mechanism, address legacy debt and improve the performance of ECG and NEDCo.
State-owned and industrial assets
A transaction adviser is supporting proposed garment factories in the Bono East, Central and Eastern Regions and is expected to seek strategic investors for Komenda Sugar Factory, Northern Star Tomato Company, Akosombo Industrial Company and Volta Star Textiles. The proposed garment factories are expected to create approximately 27,000 direct jobs.
Energy legislation and projects
A new National Petroleum Authority Bill has received Cabinet approval and has been submitted to Parliament. The Government has also developed a Renewable Energy Authority Bill and a Renewable Energy Implementation and Green Transition Framework.
The Review further reports the commissioning of the first 171 MW phase of the AKSA Anwomaso Thermal Project, approximately 90% completion of the 100 MW Cenit Thermal Plant and an expectation that the VRA Anwomaso plant’s full 250 MW capacity will become available by year-end.
A steam component is expected to increase the AKSA Anwomaso project’s capacity from 171 MW to 200 MW. Other reported electricity-access and reliability measures include 35 mini-grids serving 47 island and lakeside communities, approximately 3,600 smart net meters, 750 solar-home systems in progress, completed battery-storage studies, 6,834 installed solar streetlights, more than 10,000 streetlight foundations, reconstruction of the Akosombo switchyard, procurement of approximately 2,000 distribution transformers and planned distribution of 457,000 LPG cookstoves.
In upstream petroleum, the Review reports more than US$3.5 billion of investment commitments from the Jubilee and OCTP partners, production of approximately 95,000 barrels per day from Jubilee and 28,000 barrels per day from Sankofa, and an expected increase in gas exports to 350 million standard cubic feet per day. Proposed amendments to the West Cape Three Points and Deep Water Tano petroleum agreements are intended to support at least ten additional wells, reduce the Jubilee gas price and increase GNPC’s participating interests from 2036. Exploratory drilling in the Volta Basin is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Additional gas supply for power generation increased to approximately 490 million standard cubic feet per day by end-June. The Government attributes first-half fuel savings of GH¢3.08 billion, or US$268.5 million, to substituting natural gas for light crude oil. A public-private 100-million-standard-cubic-feet-per-day modular Ghana Gas Processing Facility is being structured, with parliamentary submission and financial close expected before year-end.
The Government is also developing a 1,200 MW state-owned combined-cycle gas-fired plant at Kafodzidzi-Abrobeano, with the first 600 MW phase expected in 2028. Renegotiated independent-power-producer agreements are reported to have produced immediate savings of US$250 million and projected lifetime savings of US$7.2 billion, with US$497.7 million representing about 42% of the legacy debt paid. Tema Oil Refinery has returned from turnaround maintenance, and domestic crude-supply arrangements have been facilitated for TOR and Sentuo Oil Refinery.
Transport infrastructure
Negotiations with a selected bidder for the reintroduction of road and bridge tolls under the Public Private Partnership Act have concluded. The Government expects to finalise the concession agreement and obtain the necessary approvals before the end of 2026.
Infrastructure delivery
The Big Push Infrastructure Programme has 87 projects under way including 74 trunk-road and bridge projects, 10 urban roads and 3 feeder roads. By June, 13 projects had reached at least 50% completion and another 15 had progressed beyond 25%. For the proposed 176 kilometre six-lane Accra–Kumasi Expressway, procurement is expected to commence in September and US$1.7 billion has been deposited into a dedicated Bank of Ghana account for use following award of the main contract.
A US$523 million Agricultural Enclave Roads Programme is expected to rehabilitate 1,050 kilometres of feeder roads, create approximately 25,000 direct and indirect jobs, including at least 7,500 for women, and maintain the roads under performance-based contracts. Other updates include a ¥3 billion JICA grant for the 3.2-kilometre Santasi–Ahodwo section of the Kumasi Inner Ring Road and first-half routine maintenance covering 462 kilometres of trunk roads, 6,122 kilometres of feeder roads and 4,760 kilometres of urban roads.
Flagship and sector programme updates
Agriculture, fisheries and cocoa
The Government is establishing 50 Farmer Service Centres and placed GH¢551 million in escrow to support a letter of credit for 1,840 items of agricultural machinery. Inputs procured include maize and rice seed, organic and inorganic fertiliser, while 500 senior high schools registered for the National School Farm Initiative. Irrigation works at Atonsu, Ekyeamanfrom and Konadu were reported at 80%–92% completion and are expected to provide approximately 3,330 hectares of irrigable land; NAFCO has acquired more than 20,000 metric tonnes of grain and targets approximately 32,000 tonnes by year-end.
Under the poultry programme, 70 anchor farmers were selected and approximately 2 million day-old chicks were distributed across 10 regions, with procurement commenced for another four million chicks and 500,000 Kuroiler birds. The Women and Youth in Aquaculture Programme covers 80 districts, 4,000 beneficiaries and 80 cooperative groups, with broodstock and fingerling distribution planned for the second half of the year.
For oil palm, land-identification and sustainability work is progressing towards an initial approximately 30,000 hectares in the Western Region and a potential national land bank exceeding 100,000 hectares. The Government projects more than 250,000 direct and indirect jobs and is finalising a US$500 million World Bank financing arrangement for private plantation developers. A proposed new COCOBOD Bill would establish a market-linked producer-pricing mechanism, guarantee farmers at least 70% of the gross free-on-board price, reform cocoa-purchase financing and require at least 50% of Ghanaian cocoa beans to be processed domestically.
Education, skills and digitalisation
A US$300 million World Bank-financed secondary-education programme was reported, comprising 210 interventions: 10 new schools, rehabilitation of 150 schools, upgrading of 30 Category C and 20 Category B schools, and furniture procurement. It is expected to benefit approximately 2.3 million students, more than 100,000 teachers and approximately 2,000 school leaders.
The Government reports payment of capitation grants for the first two terms, examination-registration support for 478,699 public-school BECE candidates and 407,271 WASSCE candidates, first-year public-tertiary fees for 165,143 students and full tuition and residential support for 1,554 students with disabilities. Under the One Million Coders Programme, more than 140,000 people had registered, 40,000 had enrolled and more than 28,000 had completed at least one module through 175 centres across 143 districts. GDP and CPI rebasing is also under way, with completion planned for June 2027.
Health and social protection
The first phase of the Free Primary Healthcare Policy targets 150 underserved districts. More than 24,000 pieces of medical equipment have reportedly been distributed, alongside mobile-outreach equipment, health kiosks, container-based health posts and upgrades to primary-care facilities. The Ghana Medical Trust Fund has a reported 2026 allocation of GH¢2.3 billion; construction has begun on cardiology centres at Korle Bu, Komfo Anokye and Tamale Teaching Hospitals, and 168 patients have been enrolled under its Patient Support Programme by June.
Approximately 1.5 million individuals were supported under the 100th LEAP payment cycle, while validation of additional eligible households continues following reassessment. The School Feeding Programme served more than 4.5 million pupils and supported more than 34,000 caterers and cooks. Youth measures include 4,350 National Apprenticeship Programme enrolments, skills training for another 5,524 people across eleven regions and grants of GH¢5,000–GH¢100,000 to 3,685 Adwumawura applicants.
Women’s Development Bank and the 24-Hour Economy
The proposed Women’s Development Bank was incorporated on 26 January 2026 as WDB GH LTD. An application has been submitted to the Bank of Ghana for a banking licence, and the Ministry of Finance deposited GH¢400 million with the Bank of Ghana as initial capital for licensing purposes. The Government expects the bank to commence full operations before the end of 2026.
The 24-Hour Economy Authority Act, 2026 (Act 1164) came into force on 19 February 2026. The Review reports multi-shift operations at 268 fuel stations, eleven bulk-oil depots, two refineries, 33 manufacturing companies and twelve public institutions. It also reports a prospective investment pipeline exceeding US$11.5 billion across 18 catalytic projects, including US$5.5 billion described as secured through Joint Development Agreements. The first 100 MW phase of a proposed 1,500 MW Buipe solar and battery-storage project is expected by June 2027.
Natural resources, resilience and public safety
More than 5,000 small-scale miners and 150 mining cooperatives were registered across eight mining regions. Enforcement activity included 200 intelligence-led operations, 207 arrests, 168 excavators seized or immobilised and 2,800 Chanfang platforms destroyed. Flood-response measures include forecasting, dredging, desilting, drainage expansion, early-warning systems and stronger enforcement against construction in waterways and floodplains. The Government also reports relief for more than 36,000 disaster victims.
New Economy Agenda
Looking beyond stabilisation, the Minister stated that Government would unveil a New Economy agenda intended to create jobs and wealth, and to shift growth towards what Ghana produces. Further programme details were not given.
What businesses should do now
· Review VAT treatment, invoice configuration, input-credit practices and registration status under Act 1151.
· Reassess customs valuation, classification, origin evidence and Import Declaration Form controls in light of AI-assisted scrutiny.
· Model the cash-flow and operational effect of the proposed warehousing, first-port-duty, free-zone and excise reforms.
· For public-sector projects, confirm appraisal, appropriation, commitment authorisation and procurement compliance before committing resources.
· Monitor the energy-distribution private-sector-participation process and the announced state-asset, transport and energy opportunities.
· Monitor the Women’s Development Bank licensing process, the 24-Hour Economy investment pipeline, agricultural and cocoa-sector reforms, major road and power projects, and the education, health and digital programmes summarised above.
· Monitor the progress of the New Economy agenda.
· Track the Customs and Excise Bills, Sinking Fund reforms, National Petroleum Authority Bill, Renewable Energy Authority Bill and Ghana Revenue Authority guidance.